Current Absorption Rates For The Matsu Valley's Real Estate Market Indicate a Seller's Market

The best barometer for a real estate market is a calculation called the absorption rate...and based on the current absorption rates for the Matsu Valley's real estate market, it indicates that it is a seller's market! 

As a general rule of thumb, an absorption rate of under 15% is an indicator of a buyer's market as homes are not selling very quickly.  Conversely an absorption rate of 20% or more is an indicator of a seller's market as homes are selling quickly. 

In calculating our 2018 market as we head into the spring selling season, the absorption rate for the entire Matsu Borough real estate market is 22.85% with Wasilla's absorption rate just slightly higher at 24.7%.  The Palmer's absorption rate is at a whopping 35.99%! 

Although these areas had less overall sales in 2017 than in 2016, most areas experienced a slight increase in average pricing year over year.

If you're considering selling in 2018 check out our website to get an idea as to what your home is worth in today's market.   

Feel free to call our office at (907)352-1828 to ask for a more specific report that's customized right down to your neighborhood to see what the outlook is for you. 

Greg Shepard
Jack White Real Estate Matsu

How much is it for a gallon of milk in Alaska?!!

"How much is it for a gallon of milk in Alaska?!!" is often one of the questions that people have when they consider buying a home in Alaska as there is a phobia of grocery prices based on reality TV, folklore, etc. as we all have heard about the $8 gallon of milk in Alaska.

In order to dispel those fears, I took a few photos of various grocery items at the local Wal-Mart store in Wasilla Alaska on 4-4-16.  I chose Wal-Mart as they are commonly found in almost every state and would be the easiest for you to compare prices to.  While we have other grocery stores here, Wal-Mart was the one that seemed to be the best choice for the purposes of this post.

The price of butter has been fluctuating a lot lately and can often be bought for around $4/pound for store brands.

The same thing can be said for ice cream lately too.  If you watch the sales, it can be bought for around $3.50 for a tub like this.










The kids used to eat a lot of these but not as much anymore as they have taken to eating a healthier homemade version.

When we don't have moose/caribou burger and have to buy burger in the store, we prefer the ground chuck over the other choices.  And what burger is complete without a splash of ketchup on top with some french fries and Ranch dressing?!  If you do have moose burger, you have to try this moose burger recipe!

Our youngest is the baker in the family and makes the best chocolate chip cookies in the Matsu Valley!

You can't beat a grilled cheese sandwich on sourdough bread with tomato soup on a cold winter day in Alaska!  If you don't have any sourdough starter let us know as we have a starter that has roots going back over a 100 years in Alaska.  

Here is a sourdough bread recipe for you to start to experiment with once you arrive.

We love Italian food and usually have spaghetti at least once a week.










Sour cream is a staple in many dishes that we cook and every good Alaskan has a Halibut Olympia recipe that is often on the menu!

Here is a good example of a recipe for Halibut Olympia!

What breakfast would be complete without sourdough pancakes and syrup!  In Alaska, it's what's for breakfast.  Sourdough pancakes have become one of our favorites with recipes like this!














When we don't have time for pancakes in the morning, a quick bowl of cereal with sliced bananas on top is in order!

You might not believe it but freshly smoked salmon warm out of the smoker served with baked beans and fried potatoes is unbelievable!

Here is smoked salmon recipe to try once you move to Alaska!

 Anyone that has ever been to Alaska knows that we LOVE our coffee...it's hard to drive a mile around any of the main roads in the Matsu Valley and not come across a coffee hut. 

 For the non-coffee drinkers here is a case of Pepsi for you to compare prices to if you are a cola drinker.

For your real estate needs, feel free to stop by our website to see what the real estate market is currently doing.  You can call my office at (907)352-1828 with any questions that you may have regarding the market as well.  

Greg Shepard REALTOR, Associate Broker, GRI, SFR, RFC

Jack White Real Estate Matsu

"But isn't it dark all day during the winter in Alaska?"

When I first talk to people that are considering a move to Alaska and they learn that we actually do things during the winter they often will ask, "But isn't it dark all day during the winter in Alaska?" Not here in the Matsu Valley!  Are the days shorter this time of year than they are during the summer?  Of course, but they certainly aren't pitch black all day.  As a bonus, it creates some of the most extraordinary ambient light during the sunrise and sunsets that can be found on earth.

For many, the thought of moving to Alaska seems to conjure up fears of how dark it will/must be, especially during the winter solstice in the Matsu Valley.  From personal experience, I can tell you that was a concern of mine as well before we moved here years ago.  For many, the thought of being plunged into perpetual darkness the day after Labor Day Weekend is a very real fear.

In order to dispel some of those fears, and to further illustrate that not only is it not pitch black all day, it's always an adventure to get out and enjoy the day of the year with the least amount of daylight so we headed out for a hike to one of our favorite spots.

The skies were going to be clear and although the temperatures were only about 5 degrees above zero, I finally fulfilled a goal that I've had for a few years by hiking to the top of Bodenburg Butte (The Butte) at noon on the winter solstice.  Having made the hike 4 times out of the last 5 summer solstices at midnight to take in the day of the year with most amount of daylight, I wanted to see what it looked like at noon on the day of the year with the least amount of daylight.

Part of my mission was also to climb to the top of The Butte to gain a better vantage point in order to document for our incoming clients just how much of an impact the Chugach Range plays in casting a shadow across much of the areas that we serve.  For those that feel that they would go a little 'stir crazy' without having direct sunlight for a couple of months during the winter months, I felt it would be helpful to know how big of an area that the shadow actually covered.

As expected, we were in the shadow of The Butte when we arrived in the parking area and were even entirely covered by the shadow of Pioneer Peak once we made the summit.  Although it was daylight, there was no direct sunlight on the top of The Butte as the sun didn't quite get high enough to clear Pioneer Peak.   

As you can see by the photos, the shadows cast from Pioneer Peak and Twin Peaks of the Chugach Range extend across much of the Matanuska Susitna Valley.  The further north or west you go in the Matsu Valley, the better odds are that you will be able to enjoy direct sunlight during the winter, with the Chugach Range losing some height as well as angling more to the southwest allowing the sun to be out longer in those areas.  The sun was out for 5 hours, 27 minutes and 41 seconds the day of the winter solstice but it was certainly a beautiful day for a hike.  

The following video captures a 360 degree view from the top of The Butte.  It was shot at 1PM on the day of the winter solstice.  

The trail up the north side of the The Butte was a little icy in spots but we made it up and down without any falls.  Unfortunately with the low temperatures, our phone batteries were very short lived so we didn't get as many photos as we had hoped for but I think that you will get a pretty good feel for what it looked like.  

The views certainly were extraordinary and even our dog had a full day of exercise getting to the top of The Butte...he wouldn't have missed it for the world as it is one of his favorite hikes too!

After the trek to the top of The Butte, we stopped at Dairy Queen in Palmer to replenish some of the calories that we burned on the hike. As a bonus, the moon was just starting to come up over the mountains at about 3:21 PM and the Palmer water tower in the foreground made for a scenic photo too.  

Although this post doesn't contain much information about the Matsu Valley real estate market, it does shed some light (pun intended) on what life is like here...and we felt that it is important for you to know what it's like so that you can determine if it's a place that you would be comfortable living.

For information about the Alaska real estate market visit our website to find out how to turn this extraordinary area into the place that you too will be proud to call home!  If you have questions about the area feel free to call my office at (907)352-1828 or send an email to Greg@AlaskaHomeSellers.com.

Greg Shepard

Associate Broker

Jack White Real Estate Matsu

WHAT EFFECT IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S INTEREST RATE HIKE GOING TO HAVE ON HOME PRICES IN THE MATSU?

Many people are probably wondering, "What effect is the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike going to have on home prices in the Matsu?"

And as you might expect, the answer is somewhat complicated.  Mortgage interest rates are set by a number of factors, but a relatively good barometer is basing mortgage interest rates toward the 10 year US Treasury Bonds.  This link provides some insight to the 10 year Treasury and mortgage rate connection.  This week Forbes came out with an article discussing what is spooking home buyer's the most and the answer might surprise you. Here is a link to that article What is spooking today's homebuyers?

Since the Federal Reserve's announcement this week that they were raising their rate from 0% to .25%, the 10 year Treasury has actually went down slightly.  Stated differently, the increase in the Federal Reserve has not equated to an increase at all in mortgage interest rates.  Yet.

Treasury bonds are traded in the world market, and as such, are being compared to other country's bonds by investors. With the turmoil occurring in other regions of the world, particularly European countries, world investors seeking higher returns are looking elsewhere.

As a general rule of thumb, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is a way to curb inflation which normally translates to higher mortgage interest rates.  So we'll continue to monitor this over the next year to see where this goes, but we expect a gradual increase in mortgage interest rates over this period.

In looking at the Year over Year numbers for home sales in the Matanuska Susitna Borough, there is something that jumps out as more of a factor for home prices into 2016 than an increase in mortgage interest rates.  The average price of home prices in the Matsu is up 6% Year over Year shown by the report below.

With an increase in the average sale price of 6% Year over Year, combined with an increase in mortgage interest rates of 1%, the monthly price difference is quite dramatic. Many home buyers are hoping for home prices to drop in order to get a better 'deal', but based on the report below, that train of thought results in considerable increased costs on a monthly basis, showing an additional cost of over $200 a month.  Over 7 years that equates to $17,623!

In addition to the loss by waiting, those renting in the Matsu might not know that the price of rent is usually much higher than actually owning when you take into account the added cost benefits such as principle reduction, appreciation, and income tax savings.  The worksheet below illustrates the difference between renting vs owning here in the Matsu Valley housing market.  

As you can see by the worksheet above, the actual cost of home ownership instead over renting actually results in an income to the home buyer of about $164 a month after the principle reduction, appreciation and income tax savings are factored in  Read that again...based on a very accurate model of the current Matsu real estate market, your home actually paid you $164 a month to live there given the example shown above!  

When you factor in the Cost of Waiting and Rent vs Own worksheets the total amount of money saved/earned is $198,929 over 7 years if all factors stay the same over that period.  

Can all of these factors change in future?  Unquestionably.  But based on the information that we are currently monitoring, this is a very accurate snapshot of what your housing needs would look like based on the averages currently found here in the Matsu Valley housing market. 

If you have questions about your specific housing needs, we can prepare a customized analysis for you based on your actual situation.  If you are in the market to buy, simply log on to our website to perform a search to see what the market is currently like.  If you have to sell your current home, you can log on to our website's selling page to find out more.  I will do a blog about that later in the week to show you what the differences in what doing that now looks like too.

You can always call our office to speak with us directly too at (907)414-9456, or email me at Greg@AlaskaHomeSellers.com

Have a great week!

Greg Shepard
Associate Broker/REALTOR
Jack White Real Estate Matsu Office

Should I wait to sell my house?

Should I wait to sell my house?

Should I wait to sell my house is a common question that many Alaska home sellers may ask.

Many sellers are still hesitant about putting their house up for sale. Where are prices headed? Where are interest rates headed? These are all valid questions. However, there are several reasons to sell your home sooner rather than later. Here are three of those reasons.

If you are interested in selling your home CLICK HERE

1. Demand is about to skyrocket

Most people realize that the housing market is hottest from April through June. The most serious buyers are well aware of this and, for that reason, come out in early spring in order to beat the heavy competition. We also have a pent-up demand as many buyers pushed off their home search this winter because of extreme weather. Sellers in markets where seasonal weather is never an issue must realize that buyers relocating to their region will increase dramatically this spring as these purchasers finally decide to escape the freezing temperatures of the winters in the north.

These buyers are ready, willing and able to buy…and are in the market right now!

2. There Is Less Competition - For Now

Housing supply always grows from the spring through the early summer. Also, there has been a growing desire for many homeowners to move as they were unable to sell over the last few years because of a negative equity situation. Homeowners have seen a return to positive equity as prices increased over the last eighteen months. Many of these homes will be coming to the market in the near future.

The choices buyers have will continue to increase over the next few months. Don’t wait until all the other potential sellers in your market put their homes up for sale.

3. There Will Never Be a Better Time to Move-Up

If you are moving up to a larger, more expensive home, consider doing it now. Prices are projected to appreciate by approximately 4% this year and 8% by the end of 2015. If you are moving to a higher priced home, it will wind-up costing you more in raw dollars (both in down payment and mortgage payment) if you wait. You can also lock-in your 30 year housing expense with an interest rate at about 4.5% right now. Freddie Mac projects rates to be 5.1% by this time next year and 5.7% by the fourth quarter of 2015.

Moving up to a new home will be less expensive this spring than later this year or next year.

For a look at the Palmer and Wasilla, Alaska real estate trends CLICK HERE

Homes for Sale in Wasilla Creek Commons Palmer Alaska

Homes for Sale in Wasilla Creek Commons Palmer, Alaska

Looking for a home in Wasilla Creek Commons?

If you are interested in finding a home for sale in the Wasilla Creek Commons of Palmer, AK please click on the link for immediate information about homes for sale.  If you would like to know a bit more about the neighborhood I have included a few facts and links that may be helpful for you. 

Why Do People Live in Wasilla Creek Commons?

Wasilla Creek Commons is a small  neighborhood of single family homes and there are still plenty of lots available for those that wish to build. Situated between the cities of Palmer, AK and Wasilla, AK off the Palmer-Wasilla  and Parks Highway.  As the name implies, Wasilla Creek runs on the outer edge of the development.  In the summer Salmon can be found running the creek and it provides endless hours of entertainment for local kids.

What's the Neighborhood Like?

The homes you would expect to find for sale in the Wasilla Creek Commons Subdivision are generally going to range between 1700 and 2800 square feet. Most of the homes were originally built starting 2008 to present.  The typical configuration is mainly 3 to 4 bedrooms and 2 to 3 baths. Most of the lots range from just under 20,000 sq. ft. to 32,000 sq. ft. on average.

What's Going on Nearby the Wasilla Creek Commons Subdivision?

Wasilla Creek Commons is conveniently located just off the Trunk Road between the Parks Highway and the Palmer-Wasilla Highway and is an excellent commute location to Anchorage and JBER.  Mat-Su Regional Medical Center is close by as well as big box discount shopping areas, most chain fast food establishments, as well as the local movie theater within 15 minutes. In addition we have a wonderful collection of local favorite restaurants, including Locals, Turkey Red, Pioneer Pizza and the Noisy Goose.  Downtown Palmer offers a variety of gift and specialty stores and caters to the local market with the Mat-Su Farm Market year round.  Colony Days and Colony Christmas as well as Friday Flings in Palmer which is another Farmers Market style of event are all well attended events.  Find out about Meadow Brook and the surrounding area's community information including banks, schools, shopping and what the community statistics are at my web page.

What Schools are nearby?

If you buy a home for sale in the Wasilla Creek Commons Subdivision of Palmer AK, the local schools serving this area are Pioneer Peak Elementary Schools as well as Colony Middle and High School. To get local school scores and more information about these schools check out the Palmer school reports on my website.
Because the area is in a growth phase sometimes school boundaries change, so you will need to reconfirm this.

Now You Really Want to Find a Home Here, Right?

If you are interested in the current homes and lots for sale in Wasilla Creek Commons Subdivision of Palmer AK click on the link. Our 'for sale' property information is a direct feed from the Alaska MLS and is updated multiple times per day.

To Search for Homes in the Palmer, Wasilla, Houston and other areas please visit my site.

BEWARE OF BOGUS RENTAL SCAMS IF YOU'RE MOVING TO THE MAT-SU VALLEY IN ALASKA

Beware of bogus rental scams if you're moving to the Mat-Su Valley in Alaska. There's no way to know how often this occurs, but we're hearing about it WAY more often than you would think.  We at http://www.alaskahomesellers.com/ are aware of the problem and the only way that we can think to try to serve all of you is to try to bring it to your attention.  

If you are moving to the Matsu Valley of Alaska and plan to rent for a while before you buy a home or other Alaska real estate, always verify who you are dealing with before sharing any of your personal information.  When the time comes to buy a home, you can shop on our website to see what is available for sale here.     

What the 'scammers' are doing is extracting information from the internet of listings that are 'active' on the market.  They can steal photos, number of bedrooms, bathrooms, square footage, the comments on the listing describing the highlights of the home, etc. etc. and generate bogus scam ads portraying themselves as the owner of the property and their wish to rent it. 

Unfortunately, the bogus rental scam ads often will contain information describing the owner suddenly moving from the area for an extended period for a supposed "mission" trip.  Clearly these ploys continue to work as this has been occurring for years in one form or another.  

I recently talked with a client that asked if I was aware of any bogus rental scams, and when I described how often they contain the "mission" term, their eyes grew wide and they realized how close they had came to losing deposit monies, personal identities, and more.  

Take a look at the following ad from "Craigslist" and determine for yourself if it is legit or a bogus ad.     

This is actually a home for sale in Wasilla, AK and contains all the data that is easily obtained by searching the internet for homes for sale in Wasilla, AK.  

They even had a copy of the correspondence that was emailed to them from the 'owner' describing in detail, their dissatisfaction with their 'realtor' and how the 'realtor' tried to "rip them off".  Here is a copy of the emailed response from the bogus 'owner'!  The story is quite plausible as well, and if you weren't aware of the scammers, it's easy to understand how this could happen.

I suspect that there is a lot of that going on here due to our sheer distance from the lower 48, and because the potential tenant isn't here, find it far too easy to fall prey to their fraudulent trap! There is an old saying that goes something like, "if something seems to be good to be true, it probably is".  Such is often the case when it comes to these scammers.  The ads are never on for very long, and "Craigslist" isn't the only offender.  Many of the national real estate websites contain these bogus ads as well.

We also have 3 professional property managers in our office that can share with you their available inventory.  To get their contact information you can contact us via our website, or call us at (907)352-1828.  

Please be careful out there!

Greg Shepard

Associate Broker, REALTOR, GRI, SFR, RFC

Jack White Real Estate 

Wasilla, AK 99654

IS BUYING A HOME IN ALASKA LESS EXPENSIVE THAN RENTING?

Is buying a home in Alaska less expensive than renting?  Buying Alaska Real Estate can often be approximately 50% cheaper than renting when the added advantages of appreciation and income tax savings are factored in.  If you wish to find out what's best for you, feel free to contact us on our website at Alaska Home Sellers.  You can also look at Mat-Su homes for sale here to see what your money will buy in the Wasilla Real Estate market.

A couple of months ago we blogged about the concept of the Boomerang Buyers that are coming into the Alaska Real Estate market, and how I feel they are going to further drive inventories lower and therefore resulting in higher prices in the months to come.  And when combined with our blog on Interest Rates and what is happening with the Anchorage Housing Shortage you can begin to gain some insight as to how these pieces of the Alaska Real Estate puzzle all start to fit together.   

According to Trulia's Winter 2014 "Rent vs Buy Report", it is 38% less expensive to buy than rent in 100 of the nation's largest metro areas.  Here is a link to the full story Trulia's Rent vs Buy Report Winter 2014.
  
There is even a very cool calculator on there that allows you to input your specific area and to use the sliding scales to find out more for your unique situation.  The link to the calculator can be found here Rent vs Buy Calculator.   As the article points out, the financial advantage to buying vs renting will lessen with an increase in home prices when also combined with higher interest rates.  We are already seeing an increase in both home prices and interest rates for home buyers in Alaska.  There is never a "one size fits all" answer to questions like this and it is only after counselling sessions with a competent real estate professional and an accountant that the answer will become more clear for your particular situation.  As Residential Finance Consultants, we employ even more empowering calculators to design a customized analysis tailored specifically for you.  

If you are a current homeowner and are contemplating a move you can visit our website and fill out this Short Form to obtain a quick estimate on your Alaska Home's Value.  We can prepare an analysis for you illustrating what the financial aspects of making a move now look like compared to waiting.

We can also be reached at (907)352-1828 to privately discuss your Alaska Real Estate goals.

Greg Shepard
Associate Broker GRI, SFR, RFC
Jack White Real Estate Mat-Su

THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN BUYING A HOME

The Winter Edition of "Things to Consider When Buying a Home" is available now.  With all the daylight that we are gaining now on a daily basis, all of us are probably experiencing a bit of 'Cabin Fever' and are anxiously awaiting the rapidly approaching Alaskan Summer!

For many, spring also means that the new home that they have been dreaming of starts to become an all consuming part of their daily lives.  Looking online every night to see if the 'one' has came on the market today, to even sneaking a quick peak during breaks at work.  If you are one of these, we have a booklet that we think that you will find invaluable.

Things to consider when buying a home

It is filled with information that answers so many of the questions that today's buyers have.  It covers all of these topics, plus so many more of the most asked questions of today's buyers:  

BUYERS: THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS STILL OPEN

WHERE ARE PRICES HEADED OVER THE NEXT 5 YEARS?

HOMEOWNERSHIP'S IMPACT ON NET WORTH

We at Alaska Home Sellers feel that this is the type of information that buyers in today's world are yearning for.  While there are countless websites to find homes for sale, simply having access to the millions of homes that are for sale across the country doesn't answer the BIG questions that most buyers have.   And that's where we come in...we bring you through the process with an unbiased approach to educate you on what the best moves are for you based on your individual goals.

There is still plenty of time to grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes educating yourself regarding the 2014 real estate season.  All the early signs point to a very busy year!

If you would like us to mail you a copy, simply give us a call at (907)352-1828 or send us an email to Greg@AKHomeSellers.com and request "2014 Winter Buyer Guide".  

 

 

5 THINGS THAT YOU PROBABLY DON'T KNOW ABOUT VA LOANS

There are 5 things that you probably don't know about VA loans according to a blog post that I recently came across.  But I am going to add in a 6th because of it's importance...and with 10% of Alaskans being retired military, there are a lot of VA loans that are used to buy Mat-Su Valley real estate.  

This is a link to the blog post that I came across that very well summed up a couple of the myths regarding VA loans that many consumers have. 5 Things that you probably don't know about VA loans.  And while those 5 are quite valid, I think that there is a 6th thing that could apply here in Alaska as well with the high amount of disabled veterans.  And #6 could be one of the most important of all.  Did you know that if you have a service-connected disability of 10% or higher that you are exempt from paying the VA funding fee?

If you are an active member of the military or are a retired member of the military and are contemplating buying real estate in the Mat-Su Valley of Alaska, we work with competent lenders that can review your present financial position to analyze what loan program would work best for you.  

VA Flow Chart from Hawaii VA Loans

You can always visit our website to obtain an enormous amount of information on Alaska real estate.  You can shop for current homes for sale here or if you are curious as to what the value of your home is in today's rapidly heating market , you can fill out this short form to obtain an approximate idea from us.

We at Alaska Home Sellers feel that there is something BIG about to happen this year here in Alaska real estate!  We featured a post about it yesterday WILL 2014 PROVE TO BE THE YEAR OF GROWTH?.  

Stay tuned for further updates as this begins to unfold...

Greg



 

WILL 2014 PROVE TO BE THE YEAR OF GROWTH?

Will 2014 prove to be the year of growth?  We at Alaska Home Sellers absolutely believe it will be.  2013 proved to be the year of stabilization as investors purchased an enormous amount of the "low hanging fruit", including the thousands of foreclosures that were available.  They were compelled to enter the market and invest after they watched from the sidelines during much of 2012 to see if the bottom had indeed drawn near and the market would start to recover.  And when they jumped 'feet first' into the market over the last 12-18 months they substantially, and knowingly, reduced the remaining inventory (homes for sale) levels causing a rapid increase in values.  With real estate being a market like anything else, it is predicated on a "supply vs demand" principal.  The more demand there is for something, the price naturally increases on the remaining supply.  
 
In an ideal world, you would always like to buy at the bottom of a market and sell at the top...but all too often, when the consumer 'senses' the market has hit the bottom, it has already made it through the lowest point and has already started back up.  Conversely, when a seller 'senses' that the market is at it's peak and tries to time their sale, the market has often already started a downward trend.

The investors over the last 12-18 months have hedged their bets with a bit of 'insider trading' of sorts.  Knowing that the price of the housing would increase with a decreased supply, they purchased untold amounts of it with that knowledge.  In a way...they were hedging that bet by purchasing placing large volumes of real estate (in many cases entire blocks filled with empty housing) into their portfolios and renting them out knowing that their asset would gain almost instant equity by virtue of the supply vs demand dynamic.  They know that reducing the inventory increases the price. 

It's in large part why areas like Nevada have experienced phenomenal year over year appreciation as illustrated in map below compiled by FHFA's third quarter report in 2013.

The bi-product of their investing has had a pleasant side affect that existing homeowners have been able to take advantage of.  Rather than being subjected to a long protracted recovery, the investor involvement has accelerated the recovery exponentially.  As you look at the map above, you will see those areas that were hit the hardest during the housing bubble bursting, are recovering at a much higher rate than those areas that were least hit.  Investors aren't interested in single digit returns on their money...they are interested in the big returns! 

And with the values rapidly recovering, the number of mortgage delinquencies is on a sharp decline as well.  Homeowners over the last few years that were 'upside down' in their homes and couldn't afford to sell because they would have to bring a check to the closing table, are suddenly learning that the market has often recovered to a point where they can now sell and actually walk away with a check in many cases.  And voilà, delinquencies are dropping like a rock.  The following map is from the National Association of REALTORS from December 2013.

We at Alaska Home Sellers feel that there is an ENORMOUS amount of pent up energy with existing homeowners that would love to be able to move...maybe to a larger home due to an increase in family size, or that have job opportunities in another area but couldn't accept them due to their negative equity positions in their existing homes.  Not only do we feel that 2014 will be the year of growth, we are starting to see signs of it being larger than even the experts are predicting.  All of this teamed up with our post about the Boomerang Buyers a couple of weeks ago is further evidence that 2014 will prove to be the year of growth.  

 

Of course all real estate is local...and Alaska real estate is no different.  The Matsu real estate market is off and running for the year so if you have been sitting on the sidelines trying to decide what to do, this might be your year to make the move that you have been dreaming of.  

There is no substitute for competent counsel and advice when it comes to making decisions regarding large financial matters.  If you are curious how the local market is impacting you and would like to get our professional advice along with a customized analysis based on your individual real estate goals, you can call our office at (907)352-1828 to set up an appointment to discuss them.  

WHERE ARE INTEREST RATES HEADED IN 2014?

Where are interest rates headed in 2014?  That is one of the questions that we are often asked and it isn't an easy guess.  At Alaska Home Sellers we keep a watchful eye on not only what the local real estate market is doing, but combine it with forecasts from many local, state and national economic and financial reports to help our clients to better understand what it all means to our clients.  We do not have a crystal ball as to what the future holds, but we like to keep our customers aware of the factors in the marketplace that could have a bearing on their decision making process.  

The following information was pulled from a real estate blog that we watch:

"Most experts are calling for an increase in mortgage interest rates in 2014. However, we believe the increase will be more dramatic than is being projected. We believe rates will be closer to 6% than 5% by year’s end.

The Fed announced last month that they would be pulling back some of their stimulus package which has helped the housing market by keeping long term mortgage rates at historic lows for the last few years. This should come as no surprise as the real estate experts have been warning of this likelihood over the last several months.

Above are the most recent projections of where rates will be at the end of 2014 by the four major agencies. However, we believe that the government is not afraid to shoot right past these levels.

Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae, this past summer announced: “I don’t think the Fed ultimately would be troubled with a 6.5% mortgage rate.”

And Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac VP and chief economist, at virtually the same time explained:  "As the economy continues to improve, we expect to see continued upward movement in long-term interest rates… At today’s house prices and income levels, mortgage rates would have to be nearly 7 percent before the U.S. median priced home would be unaffordable to a family making the median income in most parts of the country.”

Only time will tell. However, we feel that rates will be in the 5.75-6% range by year’s end."

Our personal opinion at Alaska Home Sellers is that there are monetary policies in place at the Federal Reserve that will keep mortgage interest rates at or near their current levels for much of the remainder of 2014, and would be very surprised to see them hit the 5.75-6% as stated in the blog.

As a Residential Finance Consultant (RFC) we have the tools to evaluate your personal situation to help answer the big questions:

• How's the market?
• Should I wait to sell my house?
• Is now the right time to buy?

To obtain a customized report created with your specific goals, give us a call at our office at (907)352-1828.  To find out an approximate idea as to what your home's value is in today's market, fill out this short form.

We have a tremendous amount of information on our website at www.AlaskaHomeSellers.com.  You can find information on communities, local schools, etc on there.  


We help clients understand the tax advantages, financing alternatives, and investment aspects of home ownership and why now is an incredible time to buy!

http://alaskahomesellers.blogspot.com/

WHICH REMODELING PROJECTS PROVIDE THE HIGHEST RETURN IN 2014?

Which remodeling projects provide the highest return in 2014?  Every year about this time there is a report that comes out from "REMODELING" magazine that illustrates some of the most common remodeling projects and their relative return on investment.  This year there are 22 different projects that were rated on 'mid-range' homes and 13 more on 'upscale' homes.  The National results can be found here.  This is a "good news/bad news" report.  The good news is that the results all show positive growth over their return on investment (ROI) when compared to their ROI from last year's report.  The bad news is that there are none that yet yield a positive ROI based on a National average.  

What does that mean?  It means that just because you decide you want to make some improvements to get your home ready for sale, it doesn't necessarily mean that you will get all of the money that you invested back.  For example, the national report shows that a basement remodel that costs $62,834 averaged a $48,777 return or only a 77.6% return on investment.

The news does get better however when you go to the Regional Data for the Pacific Region.  The results of the Pacific Region's ROI have 7 of the 22 projects on 'mid-range' homes showing at least a break even proposition.  The results of the Pacific Region's report can be found here.  A new steel front door will yield a 113% ROI and a new wood deck will yield a 109% ROI.  Only one project was able to yield a positive ROI on the 'upscale' homes and it was a garage door replacement with a 104% ROI.  

On a more local level, the closest community to us here in the Matsu Valley is the city of Anchorage.  Surprisingly, even with the housing market having a pretty good year in Anchorage, the reports show that last year's returns were better than this year's report.  The Anchorage report can be found here.

They also have some informative videos this year to help illustrate the purposes of the report. 

It's always this time of year that we talk to prospective home sellers and they often tell us about all the projects that they have done over the last year...and how much more they expect to get as a result of them.  Unfortunately, we have to then show them that the $10,000 project that they took on might only get $8,000 back.  

That all said, if you are thinking of taking on a remodeling project with the plan of selling in the near future, we need to schedule a time to meet and discuss them to really determine if they are projects that need to be done...or projects that should be left for the new buyer.  

To find out what your home is worth in today's market you can fill out this short form on our website.  For other questions on the state of the real estate market in the Matsu Valley, visit our website at www.AlaskaHomeSellers.com or call our office at (907)352-1828 to discuss your remodeling project plans to determine if they are right for you.  

Have a great weekend!  

Greg
 
© 2014 Hanley Wood, LLC. Complete data from the Remodeling 2014 Cost vs. Value Report can be downloaded free at www.costvsvalue.com.