Current Absorption Rates For The Matsu Valley's Real Estate Market Indicate a Seller's Market

The best barometer for a real estate market is a calculation called the absorption rate...and based on the current absorption rates for the Matsu Valley's real estate market, it indicates that it is a seller's market! 

As a general rule of thumb, an absorption rate of under 15% is an indicator of a buyer's market as homes are not selling very quickly.  Conversely an absorption rate of 20% or more is an indicator of a seller's market as homes are selling quickly. 

In calculating our 2018 market as we head into the spring selling season, the absorption rate for the entire Matsu Borough real estate market is 22.85% with Wasilla's absorption rate just slightly higher at 24.7%.  The Palmer's absorption rate is at a whopping 35.99%! 

Although these areas had less overall sales in 2017 than in 2016, most areas experienced a slight increase in average pricing year over year.

If you're considering selling in 2018 check out our website to get an idea as to what your home is worth in today's market.   

Feel free to call our office at (907)352-1828 to ask for a more specific report that's customized right down to your neighborhood to see what the outlook is for you. 

Greg Shepard
Jack White Real Estate Matsu

WHAT EFFECT IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S INTEREST RATE HIKE GOING TO HAVE ON HOME PRICES IN THE MATSU?

Many people are probably wondering, "What effect is the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike going to have on home prices in the Matsu?"

And as you might expect, the answer is somewhat complicated.  Mortgage interest rates are set by a number of factors, but a relatively good barometer is basing mortgage interest rates toward the 10 year US Treasury Bonds.  This link provides some insight to the 10 year Treasury and mortgage rate connection.  This week Forbes came out with an article discussing what is spooking home buyer's the most and the answer might surprise you. Here is a link to that article What is spooking today's homebuyers?

Since the Federal Reserve's announcement this week that they were raising their rate from 0% to .25%, the 10 year Treasury has actually went down slightly.  Stated differently, the increase in the Federal Reserve has not equated to an increase at all in mortgage interest rates.  Yet.

Treasury bonds are traded in the world market, and as such, are being compared to other country's bonds by investors. With the turmoil occurring in other regions of the world, particularly European countries, world investors seeking higher returns are looking elsewhere.

As a general rule of thumb, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is a way to curb inflation which normally translates to higher mortgage interest rates.  So we'll continue to monitor this over the next year to see where this goes, but we expect a gradual increase in mortgage interest rates over this period.

In looking at the Year over Year numbers for home sales in the Matanuska Susitna Borough, there is something that jumps out as more of a factor for home prices into 2016 than an increase in mortgage interest rates.  The average price of home prices in the Matsu is up 6% Year over Year shown by the report below.

With an increase in the average sale price of 6% Year over Year, combined with an increase in mortgage interest rates of 1%, the monthly price difference is quite dramatic. Many home buyers are hoping for home prices to drop in order to get a better 'deal', but based on the report below, that train of thought results in considerable increased costs on a monthly basis, showing an additional cost of over $200 a month.  Over 7 years that equates to $17,623!

In addition to the loss by waiting, those renting in the Matsu might not know that the price of rent is usually much higher than actually owning when you take into account the added cost benefits such as principle reduction, appreciation, and income tax savings.  The worksheet below illustrates the difference between renting vs owning here in the Matsu Valley housing market.  

As you can see by the worksheet above, the actual cost of home ownership instead over renting actually results in an income to the home buyer of about $164 a month after the principle reduction, appreciation and income tax savings are factored in  Read that again...based on a very accurate model of the current Matsu real estate market, your home actually paid you $164 a month to live there given the example shown above!  

When you factor in the Cost of Waiting and Rent vs Own worksheets the total amount of money saved/earned is $198,929 over 7 years if all factors stay the same over that period.  

Can all of these factors change in future?  Unquestionably.  But based on the information that we are currently monitoring, this is a very accurate snapshot of what your housing needs would look like based on the averages currently found here in the Matsu Valley housing market. 

If you have questions about your specific housing needs, we can prepare a customized analysis for you based on your actual situation.  If you are in the market to buy, simply log on to our website to perform a search to see what the market is currently like.  If you have to sell your current home, you can log on to our website's selling page to find out more.  I will do a blog about that later in the week to show you what the differences in what doing that now looks like too.

You can always call our office to speak with us directly too at (907)414-9456, or email me at Greg@AlaskaHomeSellers.com

Have a great week!

Greg Shepard
Associate Broker/REALTOR
Jack White Real Estate Matsu Office

Homes for Sale in The Ranch Subdivision and Creekside at The Ranch Wasilla, Alaska

Homes for Sale in The Ranch and Creekside at The Ranch Subdivision Wasilla, Alaska

Looking for a home in The Ranch or Creekside at The Ranch Subdivision?

If you are interested in finding a home for sale in The Ranch and the new Creekside at the Ranch Subdivision of Wasilla, AK please click on the link for immediate information about homes for sale.  If you would like to know a bit more about the neighborhood I have included a few facts and links that may be helpful for you. 

Why Do People Live in The Ranch and Creekside at the Ranch Subdivisions?

The Ranch and the new Creekside at The Ranch addition is a large neighborhood of single family homes, situated between the cities of Palmer and Wasilla, AK and located within a short distance of the Parks Highway. One of the big draws to this neighborhood is the proximity to the Machetanz Elementary School and of course the gorgeous neighborhood and beautiful surroundings.

What's the Neighborhood Like?

The homes you would expect to find for sale in The Ranch and Creekside at the Ranch Subdivision are generally going to range between 1460 and 4713 square feet. Most of the homes were built starting 2005 to 2014.  The typical configuration is mainly 3 to 5 bedrooms and 2 baths. The lots are approximately a little less than an acre to almost a full acre, most being at around 1/2 acre.

What's Going on Nearby These Subdivisions?

The Ranch and Creekside at the Ranch is conveniently located just off the Parks Highway between Palmer and Wasilla, Alaska and it is an excellent commute location to Anchorage and JBER.  Mat-Su Regional Medical Center is close by as well as big box discount shopping areas, most chain fast food establishments, as well as the local movie theater within 10 minutes. In addition we have a wonderful collection of local favorite restaurants, including Locals.  Find out about The Ranch and the surrounding area's community information including banks, schools, shopping and what the community statistics are at my web page.

What Schools are nearby?

If you buy a home for sale in The Ranch Subdivision and Creekside at The Ranch of Wasilla AK, the local schools serving this area are Machetanz Elementary School as well as Colony Middle and High School. To get local school scores and more information about these schools check out the Wasilla school reports on my website.
Because the area is in a growth phase sometimes school boundaries change, so you will need to reconfirm this.

Now You Really Want to Find a Home Here, Right?If you are interested in the current homes and lots for sale in The Ranch Subdivision and Creekside at the Ranch of Wasilla AK click on the link. Our 'for sale' property information is a direct feed from the Alaska MLS and is updated multiple times per day.

To Search for Homes in the Palmer, Wasilla, Houston and other areas please visit my site.

DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE COST OF WAITING WITH PRICES ON MAT-SU VALLEY HOMES AND RATES ON THE RISE?

Do you know what the cost of waiting with prices on Mat-Su Valley Homes and Rates on the rise?

We, at Alaska Home Sellers, have often broken down the opportunity that exists now for Millennials who are willing and able to purchase a home NOW... Here are a couple other ways to look at the cost of waiting.
Let’s say you're 30 and your dream house costs $250,000 today, at 4.41% your monthly Mortgage Payment with Interest would be $1,253.38.
But you’re busy, you like your apartment, moving is such a hassle...You decide to wait till the end of next year to buy and all of a sudden, you’re 31, that same house is $270,000, at 5.7%. Your new payment per month is $1,567.08.

The difference in payment is $313.70 PER MONTH!

That’s like taking a $10 bill and tossing it out the window EVERY DAY!
Or you could look at it this way:

• That’s your morning coffee everyday on the way to work (Average $2) with $12 left for lunch!
• There goes Friday Sushi Night! ($80 x 4)
• Stressed Out? How about 3 deep tissue massages with tip!
• Need a new car? You could get a brand new $22,000 car for $313.00 per month.

Let’s look at that number annually! Over the course of your new mortgage at 5.7%, your annual additional cost would be $3,764.40!
Had your eye on a vacation in the Caribbean? How about a 2-week trip through Europe? Or maybe your new house could really use a deck for entertaining.  We could come up with 100’s of ways to spend $3,764, and we’re sure you could too!
Over the course of your 30 year loan, now at age 61, hopefully you are ready to retire soon, you would have spent an additional $112,932, all because when you were 30 you thought moving in 2014 was such a hassle or loved your apartment too much to leave yet.
Or maybe there wasn’t an agent out there who educated you on the true cost of waiting a year. Maybe they thought you wouldn’t be ready, but if they showed you that you could save $112,932, you’d at least listen to what they had to say.
They say hindsight is 20/20, we’d like to think that 30 years from now when you are 60, looking back, you would say to buy now…
Agents: How are you preparing to help Millennials understand the opportunity available TODAY by become homeowners? Watch a free replay of our most recent webinar, "Spring Ahead in 2014: KCM's Action Plan for DOMINATING the Spring Buyers' Season" to find out the steps you need to take!

Wasilla Alaska Real Estate for sale... But don't blink or that home will be gone

Wasilla Alaska Real Estate for sale ...

But don't blink or that home will be gone

In keeping a watchful eye on the state of  the Wasilla real estate market, something has really stood out as of late.  Homes are selling....and fast.

We thought that you may like to receive an update on the Wasilla Market that doesn't appear in the Market Insider information that you receive, and that is the percentage of homes that are currently under contract and how many of them have sold within 10 days.  Of the 211 homes that are pending today, 20 of them sold in less than one day!  There are a lot of multiple offers on homes right now as a result of the frenzy that we are experiencing.    

Here is the breakdown as of 5-2-14:

        PRICE                     # OF PENDING SALES               % SOLD IN LESS THAN 10 DAYS

$100,000-$150,000                           18                                                       55

$150,000-$200,000                           43                                                       37

$200,000-$250,000                           54                                                       35

$250,000-$300,000                           34                                                       32

$300,000-$350,000                           26                                                       23

$350,000-$400,000                           21                                                       33

$450,000-$500,000                            7                                                        43

$500,000 and higher                           2                                                          0

Should I wait to sell my house?

Should I wait to sell my house?

Should I wait to sell my house is a common question that many Alaska home sellers may ask.

Many sellers are still hesitant about putting their house up for sale. Where are prices headed? Where are interest rates headed? These are all valid questions. However, there are several reasons to sell your home sooner rather than later. Here are three of those reasons.

If you are interested in selling your home CLICK HERE

1. Demand is about to skyrocket

Most people realize that the housing market is hottest from April through June. The most serious buyers are well aware of this and, for that reason, come out in early spring in order to beat the heavy competition. We also have a pent-up demand as many buyers pushed off their home search this winter because of extreme weather. Sellers in markets where seasonal weather is never an issue must realize that buyers relocating to their region will increase dramatically this spring as these purchasers finally decide to escape the freezing temperatures of the winters in the north.

These buyers are ready, willing and able to buy…and are in the market right now!

2. There Is Less Competition - For Now

Housing supply always grows from the spring through the early summer. Also, there has been a growing desire for many homeowners to move as they were unable to sell over the last few years because of a negative equity situation. Homeowners have seen a return to positive equity as prices increased over the last eighteen months. Many of these homes will be coming to the market in the near future.

The choices buyers have will continue to increase over the next few months. Don’t wait until all the other potential sellers in your market put their homes up for sale.

3. There Will Never Be a Better Time to Move-Up

If you are moving up to a larger, more expensive home, consider doing it now. Prices are projected to appreciate by approximately 4% this year and 8% by the end of 2015. If you are moving to a higher priced home, it will wind-up costing you more in raw dollars (both in down payment and mortgage payment) if you wait. You can also lock-in your 30 year housing expense with an interest rate at about 4.5% right now. Freddie Mac projects rates to be 5.1% by this time next year and 5.7% by the fourth quarter of 2015.

Moving up to a new home will be less expensive this spring than later this year or next year.

For a look at the Palmer and Wasilla, Alaska real estate trends CLICK HERE

Meadow Brook Subdivision Palmer Alaska

Meadow Brook Subdivision - Palmer, AK

Looking for a home in Meadow Brook Subdivision?

If you are interested in finding a home for sale in the Meadow Brook Subdivision of Palmer, AK please click on the link for immediate information about homes for sale.  If you would like to know a bit more about the neighborhood I have included a few facts and links that may be helpful for you. 

Why Do People Live in Meadow Brook?

Meadow Brook is a beautiful neighborhood of single family homes that are conveniently situated between the cities of Palmer, AK and Wasilla, AK. It's not uncommon to see neighborhood kids playing in the streets during the summer and sledding down snow covered streets in the winter. The neighborhood is active year round with people walking their dogs or getting out for an evening run.

What's the Neighborhood Like?

The homes you would expect to find for sale in the Meadow Brook Subdivision are generally going to range between 1700 and 2700 square feet. Most of the homes were originally built by Jess Hall Homes back in the early 2000's.  The smallest homes in the neighborhood start with 2 bedrooms while the larger floor plans have a four bedroom layout and there is even one with seven bedrooms.  Most of the lots range from over 1/3 acre to 3/4 of an acre. When looking on a Google map or using an electronic devise this area is often referred to as Gateway.

What's Going on Nearby the Meadow Brook Subdivision?

Meadow Brook is conveniently located just off the Parks Highway and is an Excellent commute location to Anchorage and JBER.  Mat-Su Regional Medical Center is close by as well as big box discount shopping areas, most chain fast food establishments, as well as the local movie theater within 10 minutes. In addition we have a wonderful collection of local favorite restaurants, including Locals, Turkey Red, Pioneer Pizza and the Noisy Goose.  Downtown Palmer offers a variety of gift and specialty stores and caters to the local market with the Mat-Su Farm Market year round.  Colony Day's festival in the Summer and Colony Christmas as well as Friday Flings in Palmer which is another Farmers Market style of event are all well attended events.  Find out about Meadow Brook and the surrounding area's community information including banks, schools, shopping and what the community statistics are at my web page.

What Schools will the Kids Attend?

If you buy a home for sale in the Meadow Brook Subdivision of Palmer AK, the local schools serving this area are Pioneer Peak Elementary School & Fred and Sarah Machetanz Elementary, Colony Middle School, and Colony High School. To get local school scores and more information about these schools check out the Palmer school reports on my website.

Now You Really Want to Find a Home Here, Right?

If you are interested in the current homes for sale in Meadow Brook Subdivision of Palmer AK click on the link. Our 'for sale' property information is a direct feed from the Alaska MLS and is updated multiple times per day.

To Search for Homes in the Palmer, Wasilla, Houston and other areas please visit my site.

IS BUYING A HOME IN ALASKA LESS EXPENSIVE THAN RENTING?

Is buying a home in Alaska less expensive than renting?  Buying Alaska Real Estate can often be approximately 50% cheaper than renting when the added advantages of appreciation and income tax savings are factored in.  If you wish to find out what's best for you, feel free to contact us on our website at Alaska Home Sellers.  You can also look at Mat-Su homes for sale here to see what your money will buy in the Wasilla Real Estate market.

A couple of months ago we blogged about the concept of the Boomerang Buyers that are coming into the Alaska Real Estate market, and how I feel they are going to further drive inventories lower and therefore resulting in higher prices in the months to come.  And when combined with our blog on Interest Rates and what is happening with the Anchorage Housing Shortage you can begin to gain some insight as to how these pieces of the Alaska Real Estate puzzle all start to fit together.   

According to Trulia's Winter 2014 "Rent vs Buy Report", it is 38% less expensive to buy than rent in 100 of the nation's largest metro areas.  Here is a link to the full story Trulia's Rent vs Buy Report Winter 2014.
  
There is even a very cool calculator on there that allows you to input your specific area and to use the sliding scales to find out more for your unique situation.  The link to the calculator can be found here Rent vs Buy Calculator.   As the article points out, the financial advantage to buying vs renting will lessen with an increase in home prices when also combined with higher interest rates.  We are already seeing an increase in both home prices and interest rates for home buyers in Alaska.  There is never a "one size fits all" answer to questions like this and it is only after counselling sessions with a competent real estate professional and an accountant that the answer will become more clear for your particular situation.  As Residential Finance Consultants, we employ even more empowering calculators to design a customized analysis tailored specifically for you.  

If you are a current homeowner and are contemplating a move you can visit our website and fill out this Short Form to obtain a quick estimate on your Alaska Home's Value.  We can prepare an analysis for you illustrating what the financial aspects of making a move now look like compared to waiting.

We can also be reached at (907)352-1828 to privately discuss your Alaska Real Estate goals.

Greg Shepard
Associate Broker GRI, SFR, RFC
Jack White Real Estate Mat-Su

Will The Housing Shortage in Anchorage Affect the Mat-Su Valley Real Estate Market?

Will The Housing Shortage in Anchorage Affect the Mat-Su Valley Real Estate Market?

The question can be answered in just 3 words.  It absolutely will!

In case you missed the Sunday (3-9-2014) edition of the Anchorage Daily News, there was a very telling article on what is occurring with their real estate market.  Here is a link to their story Anchorage Housing Shortage.

With 25% fewer homes for sale, and with 3 times the population in the Municipality of Anchorage than we have in the Mat-Su Valley, it appears that the Anchorage real estate market is headed for a year with substantial increases in value.

What does that mean to us here in the Mat-Su and the Wasilla Real Estate Market?  It reaffirms the thought that we will definitely see an increase in the number of buyers coming out to the valley this year because they are finding they can get more for their money out here, placing even greater pressure on an already low inventory of homes for sale.

As a seller, it can result in shorter days on market, increased prices, or both in many cases!  As a buyer, you may have already noticed that some of the homes you've been monitoring are suddenly turning up missing from your searches or in your saved favorites.  That means they have most likely received an offer and have been taken off the MLS.  And with the predicted rise in interest rates this year, it's truly like having a candle burning at both ends.
  
We're sharing this to help educate you to the realities of the current Alaska Real Estate market.  Much of the information that you receive regarding the housing market comes from a national perspective, but it is completely different here.

If you are thinking of buying you can shop on our website here.  If you are thinking of selling and want to receive an estimate on what your home may be worth in today's market, fill out this short form.
  
If you have any questions on these developments and how they could affect your decisions in 2014, feel free to call my office at (907)352-1828 or visit our website at www.AlaskaHomeSellers.com.


Greg Shepard
Associate Broker, REALTOR, GRI, SFR, RFC
Jack White Real Estate Mat-Su